M06.8 CONNECT THE MECHANISM
Turn a probability into a justified action
When the forecast says 30% rain, does it rain three days in ten? Learn to test whether a model's percentages are honest, and to turn them into decisions with a cost table.
LESSON OVERVIEW11 min lesson
Lesson overview
When the forecast says 30% rain, does it rain three days in ten? Learn to test whether a model's percentages are honest, and to turn them into decisions with a cost table.
What you’ll explore
- Check whether predicted probabilities match how often things happen, and combine probabilities with costs to choose an action.
GO TO THE SOURCE
Original explanations, connected to the research.
An Introduction to Statistical Learning — authors’ materialsArtificial Intelligence: A Modern Approach — authors’ materialsOn Calibration of Modern Neural Networks (Guo et al., 2017)Suggest a correction
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