M06.2 CONNECT THE MECHANISM
Update a belief using new evidence
A detector that catches 90% of bad parts just flagged one. Is it 90% likely to be bad? Try it, then see why the real answer is closer to 15%.
LESSON OVERVIEW13 min lesson
Lesson overview
A detector that catches 90% of bad parts just flagged one. Is it 90% likely to be bad? Try it, then see why the real answer is closer to 15%.
What you’ll explore
- Bayes’ rule combines prior prevalence with how likely evidence is under competing explanations, then normalizes the alternatives.
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Original explanations, connected to the research.
Deep Learning — probability and information theorySuggest a correction
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